Medium-Term Prospects – j. Angielski
After the severe contraction of the first two years of the program, and the relatively stable results of 1992, GDP growth is expected to resume at some 3 to 4 percent in 1993, and accelerate gradually to reach 5 percent by the end of the decade. Initially, a modest swing in net exports, and an increase in fixed capital formation would provide the spur for higher growth. In subsequent years, private consumption growth would contribute importantly to overall demand, as the economy stabilizes.
Stabilization would result from a gradual reduction in the demand for domestic credit by the government, as the deficit-reduction measures and reform of spending programs put public finances on a sustainable path. By 1994, the general government deficit could be reduced to some 3 percent of GDP, from 6.5 percent in 1992, which would be financed by about two-thirds through domestic sources. This dramatic reduction of the deficit will not be feasible without substantial progress in reforming expenditure programs and in restoring the financial viability of the enterprise sector. In turn, reduced reliance on domestic financing should permit an increase in real credit to the non-government sector, which is expected to finance expanding private sector activity.
A feasible external financing plan will have to allow for increased imports due to faster GDP growth, and resumption of full interest payments on the Paris Club debt. These two factors are expected to lead to a somewhat wider current account deficit starting in 1993. After accounting for desirable accumulation of international reserves, and the reduced amount of amortization of existing debt, external financing needs are expected to decline throughout the decade. Direct foreign investment is expected to grow only modestly over the period, and most of the financing would originate from the May 1991 Paris Club agreement and from the envisioned debt and debt service reduction agreement with the London Club, which is excepted to be on terms equivalent to the Paris Club agreement. A reasonable build-up of new lending from bilateral and international institution sources is also assumed. Little or no new commercial bank lending is expected for the remainder of the decade, a conservative assumption that might be somewhat pessimistic if economic adjustment in Poland proceeds as envisaged.
Authentic Polish history began in the early 9th century when the Polians obtained hegemony over the others Slavic tribes that occupied the country. Their principal dynasty of PIAST accepted Christianity in 966.
Poland, partitioned since the 18th century, was declared an independent republic on 11 November 1918, when the First World War ended.
The country was ruled by a military regime from 1926 until 1939, when it was invaded by Nazi Germany and by the USSR. The invading powers partitioned Poland again. After Germany declared war on the USSR, in 1941, its forces occupied the whole of Poland until being driven out by soviet troops in 1945.
After the Second World War under the Potsdam Agreement, the former German territories laying east of the rivers Oder and Neisse came under Polish sovereignty. Poland’s frontier with the USSR was also shifted westward. Poland become a „people’s democracy” on the Soviet model.
Self-governing unions were formed under the guidance of Solidarity (Solidarnosc), the organization involved in the Gdansk strike, led by Lech Walesa.
Marital law was imposed on 13 December 1981, and a military Council of National Salvation, led by Gen. Jaruzelski, was set up. In December 1989 the country became the Republic of Poland, when the National Assembly approved the change of name. The local election of May 1990 were the first full free elections for more than 50 years.
A year after in December 1990 Lech Walesa was sworn in as the country’s President. In December 1992 an interim Constitution, known as the 'Small Constitution’, entered into force. In May 1993 President Lech Walesa dissolved the Sejm and called new general elections. The leader of the Polish Peasant Party – PPP (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – PSL) Waldemar Pawlak became the Prime Minister of Poland. The following resources have additional information on history of Poland:
Poland is one of the larger countries in Europe (the land area 312, 638 sq. km making it the 9th largest country in Europe and the 66th in the world). The country is situated in very hart of Europe. It has a two-level administrative division: first is divided into 49 voivodships, which are then divided into 2,459 communes. The territory of Poland is compact and resembles a circle it lies in the basin of the Vistula (the longest Polish river – 1047 km) and Oder rivers, in the European Lowland and between the Baltic Sea and the arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Farthest to the south lies Oplonek Peak. Farthest to the north is the Rozewie Cape. The major historical cities like Warsaw, Cracow, Sandomierz, Kazimierz, Plock, Torun and Gdansk were built along the Vistula river. Modern architecture coexists with historical quarters that, like the Old towns in Warsaw and Gdansk, Cracow’s center, and the market places of Kazimierz and Sandomierz, remember times from eight centuries ago.
With recent changes in this part of continent Poland’s neighbors are: to the east and north-east – Russia, Lithuania, Belorussia and Ukraine; to the south – Czech and Slovakia, and Germany to the west.
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